Britain’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly accelerated to 3.5% in April, exceeding forecasts and marking a surprise jump after recent cooling price rises, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Key Highlights
- The annual inflation rate rose from 2.9% in March, surpassing the median forecast of 3.3% in a Reuters poll of economists.
- Inflation rates had cooled to 2.8% in February and 2.6% in March, largely due to falling energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year.
Core Inflation
- Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, accelerated to 3.8% in the year to April, up from 3.4% in March.
- Economists attributed this unexpected jump to:
- An increase in the energy price cap, which affects the maximum price energy suppliers can charge customers for gas bills.
- One-off adjustments, such as domestic business tax rises introduced by Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt earlier this month.
- Seasonal factors, including the Easter holidays and favorable weather conditions.
Economic Growth
- Preliminary quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) data showed a strong growth print for the January-March period at +0.7%, beating expectations.
- Analysts expressed skepticism about whether this growth could be sustained in subsequent quarters due to:
- Prospective US tariffs on British goods related to Northern Ireland protocol disputes.
- Rising domestic business taxes introduced earlier this month.
Expert Insights
- ONS Chief Economist Grant Fitzner stated, "Today’s GDP numbers show that UK economic growth has been stronger than expected so far this year. However, we expect growth will slow down over coming months as higher interest rates take hold."
- Britain is facing recession fears amid high borrowing costs aimed at controlling soaring consumer price pressures, which have escalated since the onset of the Ukraine conflict. The country is also grappling with high public debt levels, partly due to costly COVID-19 pandemic measures during Boris Johnson’s premiership.
This unexpected rise in inflation and the accompanying economic challenges highlight the complexities facing the UK economy as it navigates post-pandemic recovery and geopolitical tensions.
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