A new study suggests that global warming will exceed the 1.5°C threshold as early as 2028, according to climate researcher Gottfried Kirchengast from the Wegener Center and Institute of Physics at the University of Graz.
Background
The Paris climate goals, agreed upon in 2015, aim to limit global warming to well below 2°C and preferably to 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels. However, Kirchengast’s team projects that this goal may be out of reach.
Research Methodology
Kirchengast’s research utilized satellite data from NASA’s Terra satellite mission, which was launched in late October 2000. The data measures atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration globally every day since then, along with other datasets such as:
- Sea level rise records
- Ocean heat content measurements
Key Findings
- There is no significant difference between observed CO2 concentrations measured directly and those inferred indirectly using oxygen isotopes in ice cores or tree rings over recent decades.
- Discrepancies arise when comparing direct observations against indirect estimates for periods prior to about mid-century.
Causes of Discrepancies
These discrepancies are largely attributed to:
- Contamination from modern-day air trapped within bubbles formed during the formation process of older ice core samples.
- Younger samples do not fully reflect today’s atmosphere due to:
- Lack of sufficient resolution
- Incomplete sampling coverage across different regions, especially polar areas.
Most relevant information comes primarily through analysis of snow layers deposited annually atop glaciers rather than drilling into the solid mass beneath the surface layer, which would require much longer timescales to reach the oldest material.
Conclusion
According to Kirchengast’s team, our understanding of how long-lived gases accumulate differently depending on location remains incomplete, particularly concerning transport mechanisms affecting distribution patterns throughout the lower troposphere over land versus oceans.
"We need a better understanding of these transport mechanisms," said Kirchengast in a statement on his team’s research findings.
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