U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is set to meet with China’s Vice Premier Liu He in Switzerland later this week. This meeting, which has been in the works since last year, follows their previous encounter at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Background on Liu’s Visit
Liu had previously agreed not to visit the U.S. until after President Joe Biden leaves office due to concerns about potential arrest by the former Trump administration. However, Biden has denied any allegations regarding plans to detain Chinese officials like Liu or Xi Jinping upon their arrival in Washington D.C. before his term ended on January 20th.
Current Economic Context
The upcoming meeting occurs amid growing optimism regarding U.S.-China trade discussions. Key points include:
- China’s Economic Challenges: Beijing is facing a record budget deficit this year, despite efforts to curb inflation through monetary tightening, including interest rate hikes.
- Economic Plan Announcement: China is expected to announce its annual economic plan on March 5th, which may include:
- Fiscal stimulus worth RMB2 trillion ($280 billion) to boost growth without significantly increasing debt.
- Tax cuts ranging from RMB100 billion to RMB200 billion ($13-$27 billion) to support businesses affected by rising raw material costs and labor shortages due to recent COVID restrictions.
Progress in Negotiations
Sources close to the negotiations describe the progress as "positive." Key insights include:
- One source noted, "I think we’re getting closer," while another stated, "We are making progress," regarding the ongoing discussions among U.S., European Union, and Chinese officials.
- The sources requested anonymity due to the confidential nature of the discussions.
Yellen’s Recent Activities
Earlier this month, Yellen was scheduled to speak at a Bloomberg LP event in New York City but canceled for personal reasons. Last week, she participated remotely in meetings in Washington D.C. with European Union finance ministers and met with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Their discussions focused on:
- Climate change
- Energy security
- Support for Ukraine amid Russia’s invasion
EU Financial Regulation
EU finance ministers are exploring closer collaboration on financial regulation, particularly under the new MiCA law, which grants EU regulators powers similar to those of U.S. counterparts under the Dodd-Frank Act. Key aspects of MiCA include:
- Stricter capital requirements for banks against certain risks.
- Enhanced disclosure of climate risks and carbon emissions.
Call for Global Coordination
Von der Leyen emphasized the need for global coordination in regulatory efforts, particularly in light of the ongoing geopolitical tensions. She stated, "If we don’t do it together, then we won’t be able to do anything." This sentiment reflects growing calls from lawmakers in both the U.S. Congress and the European Parliament for increased cooperation between U.S. and EU regulators, especially regarding big tech companies.
Conclusion
As Yellen and Liu prepare for their meeting, the outcomes of their discussions could significantly impact U.S.-China trade relations and broader economic strategies in the face of global challenges.
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