The US total fertility rate (TFR) has reached a historic low of 1.6 in 2023, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). This decline is part of a broader trend affecting many countries, with more than two-thirds of the global population living in areas with below replacement-level fertility.
Global Fertility Trends
- The average global fertility rate in 2024 was 2.2 births per woman, down from 3.3 in 1990.
- Teenagers and young adults are having fewer children due to better access to contraception, contributing to declining birth rates since the Great Recession.
Challenges in Increasing Birth Rates
- Cash incentives may not be an effective solution to boost birth rates. For example, countries like Singapore offer significant cash payments for each child born but still struggle with low birth rates.
- Karen Benjamin Guzzo, director of the Carolina Population Center at UNC Chapel Hill, states, "One-time bonuses are definitely not very effective."
Financial Considerations
- Raising a child costs over $230,000 from birth through age seventeen.
- Lowering or eliminating childcare costs could encourage more people to have children. The U.S. spends up to 16% of income on full-day care for one child, and more than half of American children live in areas with critical shortages of childcare options.
Potential Solutions
Research suggests that improved parental leave policies and increased access to affordable or no-cost childcare can raise TFRs by up to 0.20 points. Even if these measures do not significantly increase birth rates, they would improve conditions for families who already have children.
Some countries are taking a different approach by providing financial support for reproductive technologies like IVF and egg freezing, addressing the varying success rates and increasing difficulty of getting pregnant as women age.
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